Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:18:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AD 0xad64…2f33 sports 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24,087 (-28%) realized −$22,154 · open −$1,933
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%48W / 64L
Whale WR21%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$757per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1,513est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,693now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,546
7 days−$23,796
14 days−$25,145
30 days−$24,919
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$26,023
crypto 2% −$520
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -98.0% -98.2% 0% 0% -98.2%
≤30d 58 -29.1% -35.8% 28% 28% -39.4%
≤90d 62 -26.6% -33.6% 29% 29% -37.5%
all 112 -15.7% -23.8% 43% 39% -37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 39% -37.4%
10% -31.1% 32% -43.4%
15% -37.7% 29% -48.8%
20% -43.8% 27% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 21% (≥$1,019) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$671 vs −$888 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$4,693
Realized−$22,154
Unrealized−$1,933
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses48 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Est. fees paid−$1,513
Open positions3
Markets (closed)112 / 115
History coverage125d
Avg bet$757
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 42¢ 47¢ $3,000 $3,397 +$397 (+13%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 45¢ 14¢ $2,999 $975 −$2,024 (-67%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 41¢ 21¢ $627 $321 −$306 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 26 $2,036 −$1,546 -76%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 23 $3,012 −$2,956 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,033 −$2,033 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,034 −$2,034 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,033 −$2,033 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,035 −$2,035 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,026 −$2,026 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,037 −$2,037 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,037 −$2,037 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,038 −$2,038 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,002 −$2,002 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 20 $2,038 +$3,517 +172%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 19 $2,033 +$2,420 +119%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,038 +$3,457 +170%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$237 +232%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,019 −$1,019 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,031 −$2,031 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,033 −$2,033 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,034 −$2,034 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,033 −$2,033 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,020 −$2,020 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,038 −$2,038 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,028 +$3,953 +195%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 13 $2,038 +$3,368 +165%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 08 $44 −$1 -2%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 07 $1,018 +$1,525 +150%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 06 $1,019 +$1,777 +174%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 06 $763 −$763 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 06 $763 −$763 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 06 $764 −$764 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 06 $1,004 −$1,004 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 06 $1,006 −$1,006 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 06 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 06 $2,034 −$2,034 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 06 $2,049 +$2,837 +138%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 04 $1,018 +$1,468 +144%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 03 $762 +$904 +119%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 02 $764 +$1,191 +156%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 01 $763 −$763 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 01 $764 −$764 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 01 $761 +$768 +101%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 31 $762 +$897 +118%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 30 $762 +$868 +114%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 29 $254 −$254 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 45¢ $4 1h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 41¢ $117 1h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 42¢ $2,935 10h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 45¢ $3,045 10h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) SELL Atlanta Braves 5¢ $209 20h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) SELL Atlanta Braves 37¢ $281 47h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) SELL Atlanta Braves 41¢ $7 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) SELL Atlanta Braves 41¢ $273 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 37¢ $3,012 4d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 38¢ $2,002 5d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $2,037 5d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 45¢ $2,033 6d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $2,038 6d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 44¢ $2,034 7d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ $2,038 7d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 45¢ $2,033 8d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 40¢ $2,036 8d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 39¢ $2,037 8d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 36¢ $2,038 9d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 41¢ $2,035 9d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 33¢ $1,020 10d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 29¢ $102 10d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 43¢ $221 10d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 43¢ $2 10d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 43¢ $1 10d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 43¢ $7 10d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 42¢ $1,523 10d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 42¢ $1 10d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 42¢ $1 10d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 42¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,692.67 · official $4,214.42 · 373 history records