Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad65…8c6b
world · 65 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$169 +45%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$246 · open −$47
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45
Realized+$246
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Open positions24
Markets (closed)41 / 65
History coverage157d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 24 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Yes 21¢ 5¢ $49 $12 −$37 (-76%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+83%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 33¢ 20¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-41%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 34¢ 49¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Yes 45¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 18¢ 3¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-80%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 36¢ 35¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-49%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +188%
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 13 $18 −$2 -10%
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -11%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 12 $4 +$3 +84%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will USD be at least 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -44%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $7 −$1 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $5 +$6 +122%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $1 $0 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $1 $0 +41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $2 +$1 +56%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 +13%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 29 $2 +$2 +115%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $14 +$16 +112%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 26 $1 +$1 +72%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $1 +$8 +809%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1 +$2 +206%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $5 $0 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei May 10 $98 +$241 +245%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 66% −$26
other 31% +$235
politics 3% −$10
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 23¢ $1 17h
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 17h
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 17h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 18h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 18h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 19h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $1 19h
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 33¢ $1 23h
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 39h
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 39h
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 28¢ $1 39h
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 41h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 42h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $1 42h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 39¢ $2 44h
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $2 2d
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Will USD be at least 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -17.4% -25.2% 35% 24% -14.3%
≤30d 37 +8.0% -2.3% 46% 38% +5.3%
≤90d 41 +5.9% -4.2% 44% 37% +93.6%
all 41 +5.9% -4.2% 44% 37% +93.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 37% +93.6%
10% -13.4% 32% +75.0%
15% -21.7% 29% +58.1%
20% -29.4% 27% +42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.88 · official $44.88 (match) · 150 history records