Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad66…e188
crypto · 418 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,810 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,875 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$106
Realized−$1,875
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses233 / 184
Open positions1
Markets (closed)417 / 418
History coverage159d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 417 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$305
7 days+$305
14 days−$145
30 days−$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 80¢ 84¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $212 $0 −$212 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $151 $0 −$151 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $99 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $76 +$18 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$39 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$101 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $84 +$20 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $99 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $94 +$41 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $65 +$16 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$59 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $98 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $64 +$20 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $98 −$96 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 04 $153 −$151 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 03 $213 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 03 $209 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 03 $205 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 03 $201 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 03 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$1,614
world 1% −$164
other 1% −$55
sports 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $40 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $12 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $13 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $76 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $95 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $62 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $70 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $31 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $28 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +8.5% -1.8% 84% 84% -2.9%
≤30d 135 -0.3% -9.8% 90% 28% -11.2%
≤90d 152 -2.2% -11.5% 84% 29% -11.0%
all 417 -11.3% -19.7% 56% 34% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 34% -14.7%
10% -27.4% 31% -22.8%
15% -34.4% 21% -30.3%
20% -40.8% 18% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.62 · official $91.88 · 1658 history records