Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:31:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xad67…8182 sports 65 markets active 6d ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$122 (+11%) realized +$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%37W / 28L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$77
14 days−$7
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$108
crypto 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -53.3% -57.7% 28% 28% -29.6%
≤30d 31 -10.8% -19.3% 52% 48% -7.9%
≤90d 45 -4.8% -13.9% 53% 49% -6.2%
all 65 +4.5% -5.5% 57% 51% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 51% -0.3%
10% -14.5% 40% -9.8%
15% -22.8% 38% -18.5%
20% -30.4% 26% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses37 / 28
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage97d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $7 −$1 -18%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs Jun 11 $24 −$12 -48%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: CarritoSpain vs The Last Resort (BO3) - Exort Series M Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs K27 (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group C Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 11 $36 −$19 -52%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $91 +$13 +15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $38 +$5 +13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $25 +$14 +55%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $12 +$3 +21%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $21 +$11 +54%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $17 +$26 +150%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $13 +$12 +91%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $28 +$11 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$2 -19%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $10 +$4 +39%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $11 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 04 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $14 +$8 +60%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $8 +$6 +76%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $16 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $10 −$5 -46%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $11 +$8 +70%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe S May 31 $11 +$6 +55%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $11 $0 -4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 11 $21 +$6 +27%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner May 01 $0 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 07 $25 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 06 $25 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Crashers (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Apr 06 $21 +$14 +66%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs BIG (BO3) - HLC Belgrade Pro Playoffs Apr 05 $10 +$17 +178%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest G Apr 05 $24 +$9 +39%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs ACROBATS (BO3) - PGL Astana: European Close Apr 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Monte (BO3) - BC Game Masters Champion Mar 25 $11 +$9 +82%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs MINLATE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G Mar 25 $17 +$3 +20%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Tricked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Mar 25 $9 −$3 -35%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Mar 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Mar 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Mar 19 $26 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Mar 19 $25 +$9 +36%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 18 $11 +$17 +148%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Mar 13 $27 −$15 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 99¢ $57 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 84¢ $48 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 71¢ $46 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 39¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 61¢ $40 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 75¢ $43 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 65¢ $38 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $38 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 5¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 62¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $8 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 80¢ $9 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $16 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 56¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 56¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 59¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $12 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $22 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 45¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 55¢ $11 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $11 6d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 28¢ $4 11d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 14¢ $1 11d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 62¢ $5 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL BIG 100¢ $17 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 6¢ $1 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL NRG 96¢ $24 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 40¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 181 history records