Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad68…2c6d sports 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,128 (-10%) realized −$11,226 · open −$1,902
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate51%69W / 65L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$928per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$8,015now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15,810
7 days−$15,656
14 days−$15,656
30 days−$15,656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$2,558
crypto 36% −$8,034
world 6% −$2,217
sports 2% −$646
tech 2% +$417
politics 0% −$45
culture 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -14.4% -22.5% 17% 17% -85.1%
≤30d 53 -14.4% -22.5% 17% 17% -85.1%
≤90d 55 -12.5% -20.8% 20% 20% -79.2%
all 134 -4.8% -13.9% 51% 31% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 31% -17.8%
10% -22.1% 23% -25.7%
15% -29.7% 20% -32.9%
20% -36.6% 17% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$332 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$8,015
Realized−$11,226
Unrealized−$1,902
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses69 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions8
Markets (closed)134 / 142
History coverage211d
Avg bet$928
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 60¢ $6,758 $5,143 −$1,615 (-24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 82¢ $3,000 $2,731 −$269 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Yes 11¢ 80¢ $6 $44 +$38 (+632%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 29¢ 14¢ $56 $28 −$28 (-50%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 10¢ $30 $10 −$20 (-68%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Yes 13¢ 9¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-31%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $59 +$103 +174%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $61 −$38 -62%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$91 +982%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 17 $600 +$312 +52%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Lakers Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Hawks vs. Trail Blazers Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Suns vs. Heat Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bucks vs. Spurs Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bulls vs. Rockets Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jun 17 $350 −$150 -43%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of January? Jun 17 $460 −$460 -100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Maduro out by February 28, 2026? Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1,366 −$58 -4%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1,072 −$1,072 -100%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? Jun 17 $2,015 −$2,015 -100%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 15? Jun 17 $740 −$740 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3,008 −$3,008 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? Jun 17 $5,693 −$5,693 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$18 +180%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$43 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $23 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 39¢ $31 3h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 3h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 6¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $29 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 64¢ $51 7h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 34¢ $20 7h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 68¢ $812 7h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $30 31h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 31h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $10 31h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $31 31h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 31h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,015.30 · official $8,015.30 (match) · 584 history records