Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad6e…1c94 world 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate34%24W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$11
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% $0
other 25% $0
sports 7% $0
politics 7% −$2
economics 4% −$5
finance 1% $0
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 27 -3.6% -12.7% 44% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 67 -2.1% -11.4% 36% 1% -9.5%
all 71 -4.2% -13.3% 34% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 1% -9.9%
10% -21.6% 1% -18.5%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses24 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage485d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $85 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $70 +$3 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $42 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $140 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $24 +$6 +24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $61 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $42 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $61 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $29 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $29 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $27 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $35 −$9 -27%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $1 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $44 −$2 -3%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $84 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $2 $0 -14%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $88 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $136 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $44 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $6 $0 -4%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $87 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1 $0 +3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $11 $0 -2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $21 $0 -0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $6 $0 -7%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 07 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $44 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 13h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $30 28h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $10 28h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $39 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $44 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $44 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $7 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $34 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $16 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $16 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $42 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $41 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $37 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $37 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $30 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $16 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.43 · official $43.68 (match) · 278 history records