Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad6f…7d3b weather 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate83%95W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$9
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +0.3% -9.3% 87% 4% -7.8%
≤30d 114 -2.2% -11.5% 83% 4% -11.6%
≤90d 114 -2.2% -11.5% 83% 4% -11.6%
all 114 -2.2% -11.5% 83% 4% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 4% -11.6%
10% -20.0% 0% -20.1%
15% -27.7% 0% -27.8%
20% -34.8% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses95 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage21d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? No 84¢ 84¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on June Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -36%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 09 $3 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 08 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 5? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 06 $4 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun Jun 05 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Jun Jun 04 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 3? Jun 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 2? Jun 03 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 2? Jun 02 $8 −$7 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 1? Jun 02 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $3 8h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $7 10h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 63¢ $1 12h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $3 27h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL No 59¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $2 34h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? SELL No 53¢ $2 34h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $4 34h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.42 · official $16.42 (match) · 358 history records