Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad6f…0244 other 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$88 (-3%) realized +$25 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate57%80W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$22
14 days−$34
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$276
world 23% +$41
tech 11% +$42
politics 4% +$5
sports 3% −$7
economics 3% +$62
culture 2% +$44
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -10.4% -18.9% 50% 30% -13.2%
≤30d 19 -0.8% -10.3% 53% 37% -4.7%
≤90d 39 +5.7% -4.3% 56% 44% -7.1%
all 140 +2.8% -7.0% 57% 46% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 46% -8.3%
10% -15.9% 34% -17.1%
15% -24.0% 28% -25.1%
20% -31.5% 17% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses80 / 60
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)140 / 152
History coverage530d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 34¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+0%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $49 $44 −$5 (-10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $26 $27 +$0 (+2%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 70¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+7%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 14¢ $5 $14 +$10 (+202%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 30¢ 58¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+93%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-23%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 3¢ $100 $8 −$92 (-92%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $10 $4 −$7 (-65%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 50¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 27 $306 +$9 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 27 $26 −$15 -57%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 25 $35 −$25 -71%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 23 $9 −$7 -77%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $11 +$17 +163%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $11 −$3 -29%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $88 +$12 +14%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $18 −$6 -32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $179 +$11 +6%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -63%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $11 $0 -2%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 31 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $11 +$2 +22%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $11 +$4 +37%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $31 +$62 +204%
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? May 26 $10 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $6 −$5 -71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $5 +$1 +18%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 24 $10 +$4 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $10 +$8 +74%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $17 +$8 +45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $36 +$2 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $10 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $20 −$1 -5%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $60 −$40 -67%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $26 +$12 +44%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 08 $5 +$10 +186%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $10 $0 -3%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 31 $5 +$4 +88%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Mar 30 $10 −$1 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 30 $10 $0 +3%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Trump say "Egg" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? Mar 26 $4 +$2 +47%
Will Trump say "Beautiful Woman" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? Mar 26 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" at the NRCC Dinner on Marc Mar 26 $11 +$1 +14%
Will Trump say "ID" or "Identification" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25 Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 20 $9 $0 +3%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? Mar 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 18 $22 −$12 -52%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 18 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Mar 18 $41 −$29 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 44¢ $22 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 60¢ $15 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 60¢ $5 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 33¢ $9 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 33¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 33¢ $16 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 33¢ $4 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 33¢ $2 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 61¢ $22 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 61¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 100¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 34¢ $35 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 60¢ $29 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 35¢ $8 2h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 70¢ $1 3h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 70¢ $34 7h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 70¢ $7 7h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 5¢ $0 8h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 5¢ $5 8h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 5¢ $3 8h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 5¢ $0 9h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 5¢ $0 11h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 44¢ $11 11h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 45¢ $10 12h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 45¢ $10 12h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 45¢ $61 12h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 45¢ $21 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.51 · official $239.51 (match) · 630 history records