Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:20:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad70…40f6 other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%22W / 34L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% $0
other 26% +$1
politics 11% $0
crypto 2% −$1
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 30% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 -0.7% -10.1% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 18 -0.7% -10.1% 17% 0% -9.5%
all 56 -1.0% -10.4% 39% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses22 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage453d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $24 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $42 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 -6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $14 $0 -2%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $12 $0 +4%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 31 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Solana dip to $130 in May? May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 28 $10 $0 +2%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 25 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on May May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 06 $9 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 30 $9 +$1 +6%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Christian Braun win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 22 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $32 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $40 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $33 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $11 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $43 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $37 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 26h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $10 33h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $10 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 42h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $40 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $40 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $24 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $24 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.14 · official $31.14 (match) · 181 history records