Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad70…4ccf
other · 727 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,317 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,139 · open −$148
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$69
Realized−$1,139
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses211 / 470
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions56
Markets (closed)681 / 727
History coverage75d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 56 History 681 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$149
14 days−$47
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 19¢ 56¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+198%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+90%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 60¢ 76¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+27%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $3 $6 +$4 (+130%)
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Yes 70¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 5¢ 16¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+206%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-37%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 27¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+612%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-71%)
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 20% and 25%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $17 $1 −$16 (-94%)
Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-85%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-93%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-86%)
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Will Ben Midgley win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+108%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$8 (-94%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-92%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-93%)
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 110,000 and 120,000 voters? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-96%)
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$8 +115%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -95%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will MrBeast hit 129 billion views by June 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -72%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $2 +$2 +106%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$5 +133%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$2 +35%
Will Alexis Hill win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mullins McLeod win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic pr Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Justin A. Bennett win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $1 +$6 +764%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 09 $19 −$15 -79%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 30m? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 08 $0 $0 +516%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $17 −$14 -81%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $24 +$6 +26%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $15 +$15 +101%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 07 $3 −$2 -93%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -91%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will VOX (VOX) win 16-18 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election Jun 06 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win 21-23 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win fewer Jun 06 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will VOX (VOX) win 19-21 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win 24-26 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $4 +$4 +85%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 06 $2 −$1 -63%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 06 $21 +$6 +28%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $6 +$4 +67%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 06 $6 +$4 +59%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% −$961
politics 16% +$166
culture 13% −$519
sports 9% +$48
world 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5) BUY T1 13¢ $1 9h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) BUY T1 33¢ $7 9h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 51¢ $10 9h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $11 9h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June BUY Yes 62¢ $6 9h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 16¢ $2 20h
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) BUY Korea Republic 5¢ $1 20h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $4 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $7 20h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 96¢ $10 20h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 37¢ $4 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 20h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 22h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 27¢ $3 22h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 22h
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 60¢ $6 22h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 23h
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 23h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $1 23h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $2 23h
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 5¢ $1 24h
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 24h
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 24h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 25h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 0¢ $0 33h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -34.8% -41.0% 24% 24% -50.6%
≤30d 262 +3.9% -6.0% 32% 30% -23.5%
≤90d 681 +8.6% -1.7% 31% 29% -25.5%
all 681 +8.6% -1.7% 31% 29% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.7% 29% -25.5%
10% ← realistic here -11.1% 27% -32.6%
15% -19.7% 25% -39.1%
20% -27.6% 21% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.47 · official $69.47 (match) · 3500 history records