Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xad70…23f1 sports 328 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$259 (+1%) realized +$226 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%182W / 144L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$308est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$437now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$76
14 days+$103
30 days−$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$242
other 16% +$189
crypto 1% +$41
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -15.3% -23.4% 42% 33% -5.3%
≤30d 107 +31.0% +18.5% 46% 42% -12.6%
≤90d 326 +12.6% +1.9% 56% 48% -9.7%
all 326 +12.6% +1.9% 56% 48% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 48% -9.7%
10% -7.9% 40% -18.3%
15% -16.8% 33% -26.2%
20% -24.9% 26% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$22 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$437
Realized+$226
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses182 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$308
Open positions1
Markets (closed)326 / 328
History coverage49d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 326 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Alexander Zverev 55¢ 60¢ $404 $437 +$33 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Gyula: Abel Forger vs Pietro Fellin Jun 18 $113 +$70 +62%
ITF Gyula: Tudor Batin vs Aleksandr Braynin Jun 18 $10 +$13 +128%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,402 +$62 +4%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $22 −$22 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $10 +$12 +116%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $36 +$26 +71%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $10 +$8 +83%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Varvara Panshina Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF Nyiregyhaza: Alexander Wagner vs Alexandr Tiutchenko Jun 10 $1 +$4 +388%
ITF Nyiregyhaza: Peter Makk vs Oskari Paldanius Jun 10 $10 +$9 +88%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $10 +$6 +61%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $10 +$6 +57%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $16 −$16 -99%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $7 +$3 +43%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Vit Kopriva Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Birmingham: Elias Ymer vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 03 $10 −$6 -63%
ITF Rosbach: Matteo Covato vs Richard Antoni Jun 03 $10 +$7 +73%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Anton Arzhankin vs Dusan Bazdar Jun 03 $10 $0 +5%
ITF Szentendre: Leyton Rivera vs Sasha Colleu Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
ITF Rosbach: Tom Sickenberger vs Michel Hopp Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $20 −$9 -44%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $111 −$1 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $12 +$4 +36%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $11 −$3 -25%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $19 −$19 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $41 −$40 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $1 $0 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $29 +$52 +181%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $11 −$11 -98%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski vs Gabriele Bosio May 31 $35 −$35 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $18 +$12 +66%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 +$9 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $35 +$28 +79%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 30 $18 +$17 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $13 −$13 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $10 +$8 +80%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $2 +$6 +304%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $10 +$8 +82%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 55¢ $410 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 23¢ $5 2d
ITF Gyula: Abel Forger vs Pietro Fellin SELL Pietro Fellin 100¢ $20 2d
ITF Gyula: Tudor Batin vs Aleksandr Braynin SELL Aleksandr Braynin 100¢ $23 2d
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Grigor Dimitrov 41¢ $41 2d
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Grigor Dimitrov 46¢ $10 2d
ITF Gyula: Abel Forger vs Pietro Fellin BUY Pietro Fellin 56¢ $11 2d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Fabian Marozsan 7¢ $3 2d
ITF Gyula: Tudor Batin vs Aleksandr Braynin BUY Aleksandr Braynin 43¢ $10 2d
ITF Gyula: Abel Forger vs Pietro Fellin SELL Pietro Fellin 84¢ $163 2d
ITF Gyula: Abel Forger vs Pietro Fellin BUY Pietro Fellin 51¢ $101 2d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 30¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $1,464 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $1,402 4d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 50¢ $22 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $10 6d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler SELL Martin Landaluce 99¢ $22 6d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Rinky Hijikata 49¢ $9 6d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo BUY Michael Mmoh 15¢ $1 6d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Martin Landaluce 45¢ $10 6d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 52¢ $10 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 47¢ $18 7d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 75¢ $18 7d
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 54¢ $10 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY 3¢ $1 8d
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Varvara Panshina BUY Kyoka Okamura 46¢ $10 9d
ITF Nyiregyhaza: Alexander Wagner vs Alexandr Tiutchenko SELL Alexandr Tiutchenko 100¢ $5 9d
ITF Nyiregyhaza: Peter Makk vs Oskari Paldanius SELL Peter Makk 100¢ $0 9d
ITF Nyiregyhaza: Alexander Wagner vs Alexandr Tiutchenko BUY Alexandr Tiutchenko 20¢ $1 10d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Iva Jovic 99¢ $16 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $437.32 · official $437.32 (match) · 686 history records