Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 231 History 1015 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$31
14 days−$20
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 78¢ $101 $89 −$12 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June? No 94¢ 80¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-14%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? No 89¢ 74¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-17%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in June? No 94¢ 92¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? No 97¢ 87¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-11%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 88¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 96¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 96¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 90¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 98¢ 95¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 77¢ 82¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in June? No 90¢ 86¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 59¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-25%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 97¢ 90¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 in June? No 97¢ 45¢ $38 $18 −$20 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 09 $1 $0 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 06 $1 $0 +6%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 06 $1 $0 +6%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 06 $3 $0 +16%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 05 $1 $0 +13%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 05 $1 $0 +14%
Will Lee Cheol-woo win the 2026 Gyeongsangbuk Province Gubernatorial E Jun 05 $3 $0 +2%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 05 $3 $0 +5%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 05 $4 $0 +5%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidenti Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $5 $0 +5%
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2 Jun 05 $6 $0 +6%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Jun 05 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 05 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Ashley Hinson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 03 $1 $0 +9%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Spread: Costa Rica (-1.5) Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $63 +$3 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +15%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $1 $0 +25%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +49%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 31% −$8
tech 24% −$57
crypto 20% −$65
sports 18% +$12
politics 5% $0
world 1% −$2
weather 1% $0
culture 1% +$3
finance 0% +$2
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $20 1h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 83¢ $2 1h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 95¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $3 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY France 98¢ $5 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $1 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $3 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $3 1h
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) BUY Knicks 85¢ $2 4h
Will 2+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 95¢ $5 4h
Will 1+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 97¢ $5 4h
Will 4+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $3 4h
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 5h
Will Vinicius Jr. score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 5h
Will Kai Havertz score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $3 5h
Will Neymar score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $5 5h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 5h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 5h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $3 5h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 80¢ $2 5h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 5h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $3 5h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 5h
Will South Korea finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY No 97¢ $3 5h
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 74¢ $3 5h
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 5h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 5h
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 5h
Will Harry Kane score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -10.6% -19.1% 81% 30% -31.2%
≤30d 147 -3.8% -12.9% 85% 31% -11.5%
≤90d 537 -4.7% -13.8% 83% 31% -13.0%
all 1015 -0.8% -10.2% 84% 37% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 37% -9.4%
10% -18.8% 20% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 11% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,565.90 · official $1,565.70 (match) · 2691 history records