Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xad74…15c1 weather 735 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (175 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$166 (+1%) realized +$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%697W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day175.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$160
14 days−$92
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (175 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 195 -1.8% -11.2% 97% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 702 +0.5% -9.1% 99% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 702 +0.5% -9.1% 99% 1% -9.5%
all 702 +0.5% -9.1% 99% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover175.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 1% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$52 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$2,132
Realized+$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses697 / 5
Open positions36
Markets (closed)702 / 735
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day175.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 702 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $120 $119 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? No 96¢ 93¢ $120 $116 −$4 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $115 $116 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $105 $106 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $85 $85 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C or below on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or below on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on April 28? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C or below on May 1 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on May 19? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C or below on June 19? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 19? Jun 18 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $75 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 19? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 18? Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? Jun 17 $120 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on June 19? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 19? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or below on June 19? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $115 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 17? Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $120 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 18? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 18? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $120 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $120 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $120 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $110 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C or below on June 1 BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $60 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $81 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,132.06 · official $2,131.49 (match) · 3500 history records