Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad74…af7f crypto 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$107 (-10%) realized −$109 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day126.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -21.3% -28.8% 37% 37% -10.0%
≤30d 51 -21.3% -28.8% 37% 37% -10.0%
≤90d 51 -21.3% -28.8% 37% 37% -10.0%
all 51 -21.3% -28.8% 37% 37% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 37% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 33% -18.6%
15% -41.8% 27% -26.4%
20% -47.5% 25% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$13 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day126.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 33¢ 36¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$41 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$15 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$33 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$51 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$110 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$19 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$18 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $47 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$41 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $11 −$2 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$27 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $36 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $37 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $23 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $22 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $33 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $21 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $42 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $72 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $7 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $14 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $21 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $94 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $59 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $32 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $41 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.78 · official $21.78 (match) · 126 history records