Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad75…ffc4 world 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%18W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$1
other 22% $0
politics 12% $0
tech 9% $0
culture 5% +$2
crypto 5% −$1
economics 4% $0
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 21% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 21% 0% -9.7%
all 50 -2.3% -11.6% 36% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 2% -9.6%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses18 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage269d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $7 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $36 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $4 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $76 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $68 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Jan 31 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 04 $4 $0 -8%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $2 $0 -15%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 08 $20 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 08 $6 $0 -3%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 07 $52 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 07 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 07 $11 +$2 +17%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Oct 06 $24 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $24 $0 +1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 29 $24 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $1 $0 -10%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in September? Sep 27 $1 $0 -43%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $33 16m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $2 16m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $35 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $25 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $35 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $39 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $34 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $2 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $36 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $33 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $26 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $19 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $16 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $4 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $40 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records