Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad77…b3af crypto 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 761d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$183 (+10%) realized +$183 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 42L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$15
politics 29% −$14
other 20% −$1
sports 13% +$182
economics 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 5 +3.5% -6.4% 100% 0% -6.1%
≤90d 9 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.5%
all 78 +0.7% -8.9% 46% 1% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 1% +0.0%
10% -17.6% 1% -9.6%
15% -25.6% 1% -18.3%
20% -32.9% 1% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×14.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.86 per $1 lost it wins $12.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

761d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$183
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage761d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 94¢ 93¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $39 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $36 +$3 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 02 $17 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $18 +$1 +3%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 16 $16 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 16 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Apr 25 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 25 $17 $0 +2%
Will BNB dip to $500 in February? Mar 27 $16 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 27 $17 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 26 $17 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $18 $0 +1%
Oilers vs. Flyers Nov 13 $222 +$182 +82%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 12 $14 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 12 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? Oct 26 $18 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $165 in September? Oct 26 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 26 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? Aug 27 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 27 $24 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $180 in June? Jul 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 28 $16 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? Jun 28 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 26 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $12 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $9 $0 +2%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Feb 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024? Jan 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 17 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 17 $34 $0 -1%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency? Dec 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 05 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 05 $32 $0 -1%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? Oct 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 07 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $31 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY No 97¢ $30 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $39 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 91¢ $36 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 98¢ $17 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $18 33d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 97¢ $16 64d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $18 64d
Will Solana reach $110 in March? BUY No 98¢ $16 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $17 93d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 98¢ $17 122d
Will BNB dip to $500 in February? BUY No 98¢ $16 122d
Will Solana reach $150 in January? BUY No 98¢ $15 153d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 97¢ $17 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $18 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $14 183d
Oilers vs. Flyers BUY Oilers 55¢ $222 228d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 98¢ $24 245d
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? BUY No 98¢ $14 245d
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? BUY No 99¢ $18 275d
Will Solana dip to $165 in September? BUY No 97¢ $20 275d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 98¢ $37 304d
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? BUY No 91¢ $11 339d
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? BUY No 98¢ $24 339d
Will Solana reach $180 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 365d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 99¢ $16 397d
Will Solana reach $210 in May? BUY No 94¢ $18 397d
Will Solana reach $210 in April? BUY No 99¢ $13 431d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 96¢ $19 431d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $20 466d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.55 · official $30.55 (match) · 199 history records