Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AD 0xad7f…09d5 other 352 markets active 1h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$174 (-11%) realized −$172 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%164W / 185L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$163
sports 30% −$12
world 1% +$1
weather 0% −$6
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +26.3% +14.3% 65% 65% +14.3%
≤30d 39 +9.7% -0.8% 59% 59% -0.9%
≤90d 139 -9.7% -18.3% 48% 47% -13.6%
all 349 -14.4% -22.5% 47% 46% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 46% -19.8%
10% -30.0% 45% -27.5%
15% -36.7% 43% -34.5%
20% -42.9% 41% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$172
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses164 / 185
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)349 / 352
History coverage296d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ 24¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +114%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 +$3 +114%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 +$3 +90%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3 +$4 +140%
Spread: UD Almería (-1.5) Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $3 +$2 +76%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $3 +$3 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $3 +$2 +65%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3 +$2 +50%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $3 +$2 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 20? May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $3 +$3 +114%
Robert Lewandowski: Anytime Goalscorer May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $3 +$4 +119%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 +$2 +65%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $3 +$3 +109%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $3 +$5 +172%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC: Both Teams to Score May 12 $3 +$2 +76%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $3 +$2 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 31h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $3 31h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 32h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $3 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $3 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $3 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $3 5d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 6d
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 6d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 15d
Spread: UD Almería (-1.5) BUY UD Almería 46¢ $3 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $3 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $3 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $3 20d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 21d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 23d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 23d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.03 · official $7.03 (match) · 747 history records