Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:51:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xad7f…18cd other 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,752 (+4%) realized +$2,817 · open −$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate62%50W / 30L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$777per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$157est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$4,315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$2,118
sports 22% +$5,644
crypto 1% −$422
world 1% −$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +1.9% -7.8% 62% 49% -5.4%
≤30d 80 +1.9% -7.8% 62% 49% -5.4%
≤90d 80 +1.9% -7.8% 62% 49% -5.4%
all 80 +1.9% -7.8% 62% 49% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 49% -5.4%
10% -16.6% 29% -14.4%
15% ← realistic here -24.7% 21% -22.7%
20% -32.0% 14% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,008) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$259 vs −$331 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$4,315
Realized+$2,817
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses50 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions10
Markets (closed)80 / 90
History coverage6d
Avg bet$777
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $2,000 $1,989 −$11 (-1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 61¢ 61¢ $1,000 $1,000 −$0 (-0%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 56¢ 54¢ $300 $285 −$15 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Raphinha: 1+ goals Yes 51¢ 27¢ $100 $53 −$47 (-47%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 +$37 +61%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,522 +$772 +31%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $161 +$28 +17%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4,002 +$59 +2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $506 −$159 -31%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $255 −$71 -28%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 17 $31 −$20 -67%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$68 -66%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $607 +$249 +41%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,412 +$1,315 +93%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,001 +$17 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,415 −$1,037 -43%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 +$6 +12%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 +$38 +94%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,514 +$431 +28%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $102 +$222 +217%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$78 -76%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,004 +$103 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,029 +$596 +20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,018 +$741 +18%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$61 -60%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $808 +$350 +43%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $311 −$213 -69%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 16 $501 −$501 -100%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,509 −$1,509 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $327 +$37 +11%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $128 −$44 -35%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,617 +$923 +57%
Will Lionel Messi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $706 +$291 +41%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $712 +$947 +133%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $407 −$180 -44%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,506 +$219 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $817 +$1,934 +237%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $511 −$167 -33%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $324 +$262 +81%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $506 −$216 -43%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $710 +$328 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $2,010 +$399 +20%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1,008 −$762 -76%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $110 +$92 +83%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $518 +$108 +21%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1,005 +$214 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $304 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $507 2h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $3,294 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 3h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $96 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $504 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $403 4h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,108 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,001 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $2,001 5h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $47 5h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $252 6h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $299 6h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $20 6h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $254 6h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $23 6h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $141 6h
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $161 7h
Panama leading at halftime? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 7h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $255 7h
Panama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 9h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $856 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,315.39 · official $4,315.39 (match) · 256 history records