Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:57:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad80…eca5 weather 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$85 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$368now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 49% −$97
world 44% +$11
crypto 7% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -37.6% -43.5% 33% 33% -40.5%
≤30d 6 -37.6% -43.5% 33% 33% -40.5%
≤90d 6 -37.6% -43.5% 33% 33% -40.5%
all 6 -37.6% -43.5% 33% 33% -40.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.5% 33% -40.5%
10% ← realistic here -48.9% 17% -46.2%
15% -53.9% 0% -51.4%
20% -58.4% 0% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$368
Realized+$85
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)6 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Yes 30¢ 37¢ $77 $94 +$16 (+21%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 73¢ 69¢ $90 $86 −$4 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? Yes 36¢ 49¢ $40 $55 +$15 (+37%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 62¢ 90¢ $34 $50 +$16 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 19? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 19? Yes 47¢ 45¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? Yes 62¢ 8¢ $80 $10 −$70 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Yes 42¢ 2¢ $60 $4 −$56 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 19? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$3 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $90 38m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 49m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 55m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 62¢ $82 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $190 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.80 · official $389.86 · 46 history records