Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad81…d891 crypto 237 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$198 (+15%) realized +$198 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%89W / 148L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$136
7 days+$126
14 days+$168
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 215 -17.5% -25.3% 34% 34% -27.6%
≤30d 237 -12.9% -21.2% 38% 37% -22.1%
≤90d 237 -12.9% -21.2% 38% 37% -22.1%
all 237 -12.9% -21.2% 38% 37% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 37% -22.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 35% -29.6%
15% -35.6% 32% -36.4%
20% -41.9% 29% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses89 / 148
Open positions0
Markets (closed)237 / 237
History coverage8d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 237 Trades
no open positions (148 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 341 history records