Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:19:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AD 0xad85…a8ff sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$132 (-9%) realized −$122 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$950now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$60
14 days−$61
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$4
other 14% −$34
crypto 8% −$100
tech 6% −$6
politics 1% $0
world 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -44.2% -49.5% 0% 0% -78.1%
≤30d 7 -27.4% -34.3% 14% 14% -37.5%
≤90d 11 -23.2% -30.5% 36% 27% -37.0%
all 11 -23.2% -30.5% 36% 27% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 27% -37.0%
10% -37.2% 9% -43.0%
15% -43.3% 0% -48.5%
20% -48.8% 0% -53.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$20 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$950
Realized−$122
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage83d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $960 $950 −$10 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 16 $69 −$60 -87%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 08 $81 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 30 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? May 30 $88 −$11 -13%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 29 $107 −$22 -21%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Qual4 (BO1) - Conquest of Prague Online St May 27 $19 +$6 +31%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$75 in March? Apr 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $950.00 · official $950.00 (match) · 21 history records