Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:13:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xad86…4de1 sports 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$187 (+2%) realized +$241 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate54%59W / 50L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$9
14 days−$92
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$56
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +67.7% +51.8% 100% 50% +67.2%
≤30d 59 +22.1% +10.5% 56% 32% -12.1%
≤90d 109 +6.9% -3.3% 54% 35% -8.4%
all 109 +6.9% -3.3% 54% 35% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 35% -8.4%
10% -12.5% 20% -17.2%
15% -21.0% 13% -25.2%
20% -28.7% 9% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$21 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$241
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses59 / 50
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage41d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 66¢ 100¢ $132 $200 +$68 (+51%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 13¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $145 +$8 +5%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $235 +$25 +11%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $135 −$113 -84%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $20 −$19 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $41 +$9 +22%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 03 $493 −$2 -0%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $8 −$6 -75%
LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs Jun 02 $308 −$1 -0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $107 −$31 -29%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $94 +$14 +15%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $17 +$9 +52%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 30 $7 +$10 +150%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe May 29 $197 +$40 +20%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha May 29 $16 −$6 -39%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 28 $79 +$28 +36%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $75 +$25 +34%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) May 28 $23 +$2 +10%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers May 28 $42 +$14 +33%
LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challenge May 28 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken (BO5) - Rift Legends Playoffs May 27 $72 +$1 +1%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $76 −$11 -14%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $114 −$13 -12%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $92 +$8 +9%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch May 26 $220 +$10 +4%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $94 +$6 +6%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 26 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $106 +$1 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - May 25 $55 +$11 +20%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $66 −$65 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $100 +$41 +41%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $208 −$18 -8%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 23 $123 $0 +0%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $88 +$12 +14%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $52 −$40 -77%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $83 +$17 +20%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers May 22 $222 −$10 -5%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Le May 22 $13 −$7 -56%
LoL: Dynasty vs Once Upon A Team (BO3) - Road Of Legends Playoffs May 21 $166 +$11 +6%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $332 +$46 +14%
LoL: Forsaken vs DOCISK (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season May 21 $17 −$12 -71%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q May 21 $186 −$31 -17%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $12 −$5 -46%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall May 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 1¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 7¢ $4 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 26¢ $27 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $41 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $6 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $20 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 21¢ $18 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 21¢ $3 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $65 4h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Galions 99¢ $99 45h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 2¢ $2 45h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 2¢ $1 45h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 2¢ $0 45h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Solary 7¢ $14 45h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 3¢ $6 45h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 88¢ $88 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 47h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Solary 49¢ $48 47h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 46¢ $47 47h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 0¢ $1 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 1¢ $2 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 65¢ $131 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 30¢ $3 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 30¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.10 · official $200.10 (match) · 653 history records