Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:30:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AD 0xad88…3c1e sports 1189 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 233d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$611 (+0%) realized +$887 · open −$276
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%599W / 572L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$2,121est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,953now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$482
7 days+$2,303
14 days+$1,536
30 days+$4,553
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$275
other 3% −$1,009
culture 2% +$194
politics 1% +$249
tech 0% +$64
world 0% −$225
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +29.7% +17.4% 53% 53% +2.9%
≤30d 279 +14.2% +3.3% 55% 54% -1.7%
≤90d 991 -1.4% -10.8% 47% 47% -18.2%
all 1171 +3.1% -6.8% 51% 50% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 50% -10.0%
10% -15.7% 48% -18.7%
15% -23.8% 46% -26.5%
20% -31.3% 42% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$173 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$2,953
Realized+$887
Unrealized−$276
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses599 / 572
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$2,121
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1171 / 1189
History coverage234d ⚠
Avg bet$193
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 1171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $200 $261 +$61 (+31%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 53¢ 53¢ $212 $212 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 44¢ 44¢ $202 $205 +$2 (+1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 55¢ 55¢ $204 $202 −$2 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 39¢ 38¢ $203 $200 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ 60¢ $201 $200 −$2 (-1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $202 $200 −$2 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 49¢ 48¢ $201 $199 −$2 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 50¢ 50¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 63¢ 62¢ $202 $197 −$5 (-2%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 48¢ 46¢ $202 $195 −$6 (-3%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 47¢ 48¢ $128 $129 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 41¢ 26¢ $205 $128 −$78 (-38%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $150 $116 −$34 (-23%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 54¢ 56¢ $107 $112 +$5 (+5%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ 37¢ $102 $74 −$28 (-27%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $210 $1 −$209 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $208 +$152 +73%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $204 +$176 +86%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $210 +$180 +86%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $208 +$152 +73%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $205 +$215 +105%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 15 $200 −$198 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $204 −$201 -99%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 15 $204 −$201 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $206 −$202 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $215 +$185 +86%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $206 +$164 +79%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $205 +$215 +105%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $206 +$254 +124%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $205 −$205 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $208 −$208 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $206 −$204 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $205 −$202 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $206 −$202 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $205 −$202 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $100 +$2,541 +2541%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $211 +$189 +90%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $206 +$134 +65%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $205 +$225 +109%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $205 +$215 +105%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $211 +$189 +90%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $211 +$189 +90%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $207 −$204 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $204 −$201 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $209 −$206 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $205 −$202 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $31 +$29 +93%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $206 +$144 +70%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $204 +$206 +101%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $206 +$164 +79%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $211 +$189 +90%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $208 +$172 +83%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 12 $204 −$201 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $203 −$201 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $205 −$202 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $204 +$156 +76%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $205 +$225 +109%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $206 +$144 +70%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $215 +$185 +86%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $206 −$203 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $211 −$208 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $206 −$202 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $204 +$156 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $47 6m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $27 8m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $47 10m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $203 1h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $7 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $205 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 49¢ $204 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $206 1h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 44¢ $206 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $205 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $207 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 63¢ $204 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $204 1h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 60¢ $200 25h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $204 25h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 61¢ $204 25h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $210 25h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 49¢ $204 25h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $206 25h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $108 25h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 57¢ $208 25h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $208 25h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ $205 25h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 51¢ $137 47h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $38 47h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 51¢ $42 47h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $17 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $23 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $8 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,953.28 · official $2,953.88 (match) · 3499 history records