Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:04:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AD 0xad88…ee99 crypto 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$325 (+18%) realized +$327 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%54W / 69L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$396
14 days+$311
30 days+$311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$119
crypto 50% +$191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +19.9% +8.5% 62% 62% +21.4%
≤30d 123 -22.3% -29.7% 44% 41% +6.7%
≤90d 123 -22.3% -29.7% 44% 41% +6.7%
all 123 -22.3% -29.7% 44% 41% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 41% +6.7%
10% -36.4% 36% -3.5%
15% -42.6% 32% -12.8%
20% -48.2% 26% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$327
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses54 / 69
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage12d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31 +$19 +63%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $151 +$88 +58%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$33 +309%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$22 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$18 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$33 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$12 +28%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$28 +91%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $153 +$78 +51%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $204 +$108 +53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $194 +$133 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$20 +369%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$10 +49%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $31 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $151 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $18 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 46h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $11 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $82 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $41 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $153 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $204 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.69 · official $47.69 (match) · 196 history records