Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:32:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad89…f6e1 other 210 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$291,052 (+18%) realized +$310,132 · open −$19,080
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate72%136W / 52L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$7,626per market
Trades / day71.2pace
Fees−$5,801est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$258,046now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$13,778
sports 23% +$63,425
other 17% +$9,959
world 8% +$5,885
crypto 7% +$1,204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.9% -11.2% 80% 35% +1.6%
≤30d 106 +11.7% +1.1% 75% 41% +0.7%
≤90d 188 +50.3% +36.0% 72% 38% -2.5%
all 188 +50.3% +36.0% 72% 38% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +36.0% 38% -2.5%
10% +23.0% 26% -11.9%
15% ← realistic here +11.1% 21% -20.4%
20% +0.2% 18% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$2,415) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +88% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$894 vs −$762 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.39 per $1 lost it wins $3.39
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$258,046
Realized+$310,132
Unrealized−$19,080
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses136 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$5,801
Open positions22
Markets (closed)188 / 210
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$7,626
Trades / day71.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 58¢ $105,000 $122,850 +$17,850 (+17%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 42¢ $105,000 $87,150 −$17,850 (-17%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $20,191 $20,734 +$544 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $7,495 $7,646 +$152 (+2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6,911 $6,943 +$32 (+0%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 98¢ $2,961 $3,336 +$374 (+13%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 88¢ 94¢ $1,914 $2,041 +$127 (+7%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 90¢ 98¢ $1,326 $1,443 +$116 (+9%)
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 74¢ $1,366 $1,428 +$61 (+4%)
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 67¢ 24¢ $3,346 $1,199 −$2,147 (-64%)
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 87¢ 97¢ $1,008 $1,119 +$111 (+11%)
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $770 $925 +$155 (+20%)
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 90¢ 99¢ $315 $347 +$32 (+10%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 38¢ 44¢ $190 $218 +$28 (+14%)
Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22? No 50¢ 30¢ $325 $196 −$129 (-40%)
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22? Yes 74¢ 14¢ $873 $159 −$713 (-82%)
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 90¢ 97¢ $104 $113 +$8 (+8%)
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 91¢ 99¢ $77 $83 +$7 (+9%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 83¢ 92¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+11%)
Will Uzbekistan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 98¢ $35 $40 +$4 (+12%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sincere Rhea win Love Island USA Season 8? No 50¢ 75¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+50%)
Will KC Chandler win Love Island USA Season 8? No 40¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 26 $4,000 +$633 +16%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 26 $1,726 +$147 +8%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20,000 +$10,303 +52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $1,700 +$280 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $24,121 +$417 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $4,847 +$269 +6%
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 24 $2,415 +$99 +4%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $1,925 +$422 +22%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 23 $414 +$17 +4%
Will Norway be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 23 $383 +$12 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $3,506 +$52 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 22 $5,510 +$112 +2%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,738 +$2,062 +119%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $4,571 −$1,075 -24%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,505 +$181 +12%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $3,347 −$3,343 -100%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $7,170 +$354 +5%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3,705 +$538 +14%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1,674 +$500 +30%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -18%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $418 +$39 +9%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3,200 +$600 +19%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3,755 −$3,755 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7,600 +$2,400 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $408 +$35 +9%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 14 $932 +$19 +2%
Julia Grabher vs. Nuria Brancaccio: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $59 +$1 +2%
Set Handicap: Grabher (-1.5) vs Brancaccio (+1.5) Jun 14 $123 +$3 +2%
Set Handicap: Gorgodze (-1.5) vs Semenistaja (+1.5) Jun 14 $406 +$8 +2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $19,788 +$404 +2%
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,197 +$81 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $4,263 −$602 -14%
HSBC Championships: Completed Match: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $1,440 +$560 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $951 +$5 +0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 13 $4,604 +$113 +2%
Set Handicap: Mboko/Williams (-1.5) vs Fernandez/Siegemund (+1.5) Jun 11 $35 +$15 +43%
Will Panathinaikos Athens win Greek Basketball League? Jun 11 $187 +$279 +149%
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $536 +$34 +6%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $240 +$18 +7%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 10 $689 +$498 +72%
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski Jun 10 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Olympiacos Piraeus win Greek Basketball League? Jun 10 $203 +$601 +297%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 09 $139 +$268 +192%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $1,913 +$417 +22%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 09 $713 +$63 +9%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $998 +$131 +13%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $1,000 +$182 +18%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $6,621 +$2,062 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 33¢ $2 8m
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 20m
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $298 30m
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 31m
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 94¢ $1,012 1h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $184 1h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $775 6h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 76¢ $825 6h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $7,019 7h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 7h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $4 7h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $12,649 7h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $319 7h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,980 28h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 53¢ $0 29h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 48¢ $320 29h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 48¢ $12 29h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $80 29h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $782 29h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $782 29h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $6 29h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $50 29h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 48¢ $9 29h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 48¢ $17 29h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 48¢ $30 29h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 52¢ $25 29h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 52¢ $82 29h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 52¢ $5 29h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 52¢ $1 29h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 55¢ $556 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258,046.34 · official $258,023.23 (match) · 3500 history records