Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad8f…15ea world 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$4
world 26% −$17
other 21% −$4
sports 16% −$8
tech 5% +$2
economics 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.5% -13.6% 11% 0% -12.5%
≤30d 25 -2.7% -12.0% 24% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 36 +7.4% -2.8% 25% 3% -10.3%
all 49 +0.6% -9.0% 35% 4% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 4% -10.7%
10% -17.7% 4% -19.3%
15% -25.6% 4% -27.1%
20% -32.9% 4% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 32
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage539d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $6 −$1 -25%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $46 −$7 -14%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $55 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $129 −$1 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $35 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $43 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $87 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 -13%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $78 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $24 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $1 $0 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $40 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $27 −$7 -26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $16 −$3 -16%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $71 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $115 +$2 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $450 −$3 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $230 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $61 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $248 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $226 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Canadian GP pole? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $500m and $1b on Feb 21 Mar 04 $3 $0 +7%
Jackson State vs. Bethune-Cookman Feb 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Monmouth vs. Towson Feb 15 $12 −$6 -52%
Longwood vs. High Point Feb 14 $4 +$4 +100%
Kennesaw State vs. Louisiana Tech Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the match between PAOK and FCSB end in a draw? Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary? Dec 29 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 45m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $27 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $7 11h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $21 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No $4 23h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $1 26h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $4 26h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $32 28h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $32 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $12 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 12¢ $0 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $15 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $14 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $29 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $1 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $25 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $26 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $32 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $32 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.83 · official $5.40 (match) · 167 history records