Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad94…164b other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$331 (-43%) realized −$339 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$42
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$286
other 47% −$28
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +23.2% +11.5% 57% 43% +3.2%
≤30d 25 -0.9% -10.4% 44% 32% -16.9%
≤90d 28 -5.2% -14.2% 43% 32% -50.4%
all 28 -5.2% -14.2% 43% 32% -50.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 32% -50.4%
10% -22.4% 29% -55.1%
15% -29.9% 29% -59.5%
20% -36.8% 25% -63.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$28 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$339
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage38d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $45 +$10 (+29%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $35 +$19 +54%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $6 +$1 +17%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $55 +$5 +9%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $35 −$15 -42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 +$19 +152%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 +$10 +166%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 +$28 +46%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 −$7 -34%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $31 −$7 -22%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 +$10 +203%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Croatia to score first vs. England? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $57 −$57 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$7 -48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -67%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 25 $7 −$7 -98%
World Championships: Slovenia vs. Italy May 25 $4 +$3 +79%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 23 $293 −$288 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $54 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $7 5h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 6h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $15 6h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 80¢ $60 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $55 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 38¢ $20 44h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $16 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 4d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $13 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $16 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 4d
Croatia to score first vs. England? BUY Yes $1 7d
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $57 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.50 · official $47.50 (match) · 67 history records