Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:15:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

AD 0xad96…b825 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 601d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,096 (+33%) realized +$2,074 · open +$22

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate69%9W / 4L

Drawdown8%max

Avg bet$429per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$422now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$69

7 days−$35

14 days+$283

30 days+$802

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)-1.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-4.6%	-13.7%	75%	50%	-13.5%
≤30d	12	+4.6%	-5.4%	67%	58%	+12.4%
≤90d	12	+4.6%	-5.4%	67%	58%	+12.4%
all	13	+8.4%	-1.9%	69%	62%	+24.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.9%	62%	+24.4%
10%	-11.3%	54%	+12.5%
15%	-19.9%	46%	+1.6%
20%	-27.7%	31%	-8.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +23% → late -4% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$322 vs −$170 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.26 per $1 lost it wins $4.26

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage

Net worth$422

Realized+$2,074

Unrealized+$22

Win rate (resolved)69%

Wins / losses9 / 4

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions1

Markets (closed)13 / 15

History coverage601d

Avg bet$429

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown8%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	Japan	27¢	28¢	$400	$422	+$22 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	Jun 28	$202	+$69	+34%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$203	−$200	-99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$200	+$4	+2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$202	+$92	+46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$505	+$110	+22%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$101	−$100	-99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$304	+$213	+70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$201	−$200	-99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	Jun 17	$102	+$150	+147%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$303	+$145	+48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$811	+$698	+86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$185	−$180	-97%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 06	$2,600	+$1,415	+54%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Japan	27¢	$409	1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	BUY Canada	74¢	$202	24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	52¢	$101	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	52¢	$101	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	98¢	$200	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$202	7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	84¢	$615	8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$505	8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	71¢	$101	9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$304	12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$201	12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$303	13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	BUY	40¢	$102	13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	9¢	$82	14d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14	BUY	5¢	$103	15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	6¢	$103	15d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	53¢	$811	15d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	100¢	$247	600d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	94¢	$3,768	600d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	61¢	$2,600	601d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $422.07 · official $422.22 (match) · 27 history records