Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:07:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xad97…dc4c other 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 699d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,626 (+10%) realized +$2,019 · open −$393
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%45W / 39L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$1,971now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$592
7 days+$1,596
14 days+$1,671
30 days+$1,717
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$1,512
sports 35% −$104
politics 1% +$36
crypto 0% −$50
economics 0% −$11
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -14.4% -22.6% 56% 50% +5.0%
≤30d 32 -12.9% -21.2% 59% 53% +2.2%
≤90d 32 -12.9% -21.2% 59% 53% +2.2%
all 84 -15.2% -23.3% 54% 51% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 51% +1.5%
10% -30.6% 48% -8.2%
15% -37.3% 40% -17.1%
20% -43.5% 27% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$79 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

699d coverage
Net worth$1,971
Realized+$2,019
Unrealized−$393
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses45 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage699d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $1,714 $1,688 −$26 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Over 70¢ 30¢ $650 $283 −$367 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $379 +$277 +73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,023 −$644 -63%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $657 +$359 +55%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,061 +$745 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 −$201 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $145 +$130 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $502 +$298 +60%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $389 −$389 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,444 +$307 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 +$206 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $602 +$10 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $430 +$191 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,966 +$962 +49%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $443 −$443 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $409 +$35 +8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $321 +$88 +27%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $224 +$97 +43%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $369 −$145 -39%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $293 +$76 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $105 +$29 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $101 +$34 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $608 +$427 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 30 $97 −$97 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $49 +$17 +36%
Jannik Sinner vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 29 $225 −$225 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 29 $227 −$227 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Alexander Zverev May 27 $201 +$24 +12%
VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to Score Mar 13 $14 +$10 +75%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Mar 08 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $12 +$21 +178%
Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 07 $66 −$66 -100%
Superform FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-28? Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 07 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? Mar 07 $54 +$38 +69%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $25 +$15 +61%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $121 +$54 +45%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-26? Feb 27 $150 +$81 +54%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad win on 2026-01-29? Jan 30 $7 +$6 +85%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-29? Jan 30 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-01-29? Jan 30 $10 +$4 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1,732 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $656 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $656 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $379 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $379 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,023 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 58¢ $1,061 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $74 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $201 47h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $145 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $657 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $502 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $61 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $712 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $24 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $612 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $602 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $621 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $430 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,927 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,966 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $1,444 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $389 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $443 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $409 8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 78¢ $321 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $321 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $224 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,971.09 · official $1,971.09 (match) · 174 history records