Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xad99…6993 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%14W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% $0
crypto 24% $0
weather 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 14 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses14 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage21d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.95 · official $6.95 (match) · 29 history records