Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AD 0xad99…dbab other 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$280 (+6%) realized +$112 · open +$168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$4,352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days−$52
14 days−$52
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$188
world 28% +$119
politics 20% +$71
culture 10% −$259
tech 2% −$1
finance 2% −$7
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -16.4% -24.4% 67% 67% -17.1%
≤30d 3 -16.4% -24.4% 67% 67% -17.1%
≤90d 3 -16.4% -24.4% 67% 67% -17.1%
all 5 -25.8% -32.8% 60% 60% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 60% -17.3%
10% -39.3% 20% -25.2%
15% -45.1% 0% -32.5%
20% -50.5% 0% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$91 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$4,352
Realized+$112
Unrealized+$168
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions103
Markets (closed)5 / 108
History coverage123d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 103 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 86¢ $350 $488 +$139 (+40%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 51¢ 84¢ $269 $446 +$177 (+66%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 37¢ 52¢ $294 $409 +$115 (+39%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $216 $136 −$80 (-37%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 51¢ 50¢ $85 $82 −$3 (-3%)
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? No 23¢ 23¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+0%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 54¢ 55¢ $74 $74 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 44¢ 38¢ $81 $70 −$11 (-14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $68 $66 −$2 (-3%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $77 $61 −$17 (-21%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 32¢ 38¢ $50 $59 +$10 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $58 $58 +$1 (+1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $53 $53 −$1 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 75¢ 72¢ $54 $53 −$2 (-3%)
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No 39¢ 38¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 14¢ 12¢ $56 $50 −$6 (-11%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 31¢ 34¢ $44 $48 +$4 (+9%)
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-3%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 33¢ 33¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No 26¢ 23¢ $47 $42 −$5 (-12%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 74¢ 74¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 38¢ 38¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-1%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 86¢ 86¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 36¢ $41 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 63¢ 62¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $236 +$79 +34%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $214 +$36 +17%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $169 −$167 -99%
Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 17 $42 +$8 +20%
Will Labcorp Holdings (LH) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary e BUY Yes 19¢ $34 5m
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $27 7m
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY No 26¢ $49 9m
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? BUY No 56¢ $7 14m
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? BUY No 24¢ $6 15m
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? BUY No 25¢ $2 15m
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 BUY No 83¢ $23 15m
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 BUY No 74¢ $42 15m
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $5 17m
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 26¢ $6 17m
Base FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 26¢ $20 17m
OKX IPO in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $20 19m
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 BUY No 19¢ $23 22m
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 27¢ $29 26m
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $24 27m
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 29¢ $24 27m
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 24¢ $21 27m
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 15¢ $28 27m
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 33¢ $7 27m
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 29m
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 41¢ $35 29m
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? BUY No 51¢ $87 30m
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY Yes 22¢ $33 31m
Weed rescheduled by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $33 34m
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $23 35m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 39m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $54 39m
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $53 40m
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $49 40m
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? BUY No 54¢ $74 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,351.65 · official $4,351.66 (match) · 158 history records