Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad99…52d5 sports 306 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$365 (-3%) realized −$353 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%159W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days+$240
14 days+$316
30 days+$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$317
sports 35% −$84
world 3% −$208
politics 2% +$133
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -12.0% -20.4% 46% 46% +17.1%
≤30d 180 +2.0% -7.7% 55% 52% -2.1%
≤90d 290 -3.5% -12.6% 55% 50% -12.7%
all 290 -3.5% -12.6% 55% 50% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 50% -12.7%
10% -21.0% 40% -21.1%
15% -28.6% 31% -28.7%
20% -35.6% 20% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$25 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$353
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses159 / 131
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions16
Markets (closed)290 / 306
History coverage74d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 49¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 57¢ 47¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 18¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-55%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 39¢ 14¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-63%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $40 +$23 +57%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao Jun 23 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$12 +119%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$39 +76%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $19 +$10 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $81 +$41 +51%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 −$8 -26%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$21 +53%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$5 +467%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$21 +52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $40 +$27 +67%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$25 +25%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$64 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$11 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 +$23 +46%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$21 +41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $59 −$20 -34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$25 +82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$29 -71%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $15 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $63 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao SELL Justina Mikulskyte 100¢ $29 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao BUY Justina Mikulskyte 69¢ $20 7h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 7h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 7h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $10 7h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 7h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $40 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $23 26h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $19 30h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 30h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 30h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 30h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 30h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 30h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 30h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 30h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 30h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.23 · official $167.23 (match) · 560 history records