Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:59:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xad9a…858f crypto 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$163 (-3%) realized −$89 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate91%86W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$88
14 days−$159
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% $0
other 7% −$129
sports 1% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -44.1% -49.4% 43% 29% -37.7%
≤30d 22 -25.1% -32.2% 64% 27% -24.4%
≤90d 40 -12.4% -20.7% 80% 18% -14.5%
all 94 -5.0% -14.1% 91% 7% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 7% -11.3%
10% -22.3% 3% -19.8%
15% -29.8% 2% -27.6%
20% -36.7% 2% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$30 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$89
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses86 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage160d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 92¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $39 −$38 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $43 +$30 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? Jun 19 $63 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$35 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $31 +$4 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 10 $27 +$4 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 03 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 20? Jun 01 $54 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $97 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19? May 20 $52 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 18? May 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 17? May 18 $51 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 21? May 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 16 $95 +$6 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 17? Apr 21 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 11? Apr 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 11 $46 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $45 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $39 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? Apr 06 $75 +$25 +33%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 2? Apr 04 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 31? Apr 01 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 01 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 30? Mar 31 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 29? Mar 30 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 22? Mar 26 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on March 21? Mar 22 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 20? Mar 21 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 18? Mar 19 $53 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 17? Mar 17 $53 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 13? Mar 16 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 12? Mar 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $52 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $31 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $39 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $43 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $63 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $62 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $60 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 10d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $24 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $24 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $36 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $34 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 88¢ $31 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 88¢ $27 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $27 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? BUY Yes 98¢ $26 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 92¢ $75 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 20? BUY No 97¢ $54 37d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19? BUY No 97¢ $52 38d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $52 38d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $51 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $97 40d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $46 66d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $46 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.81 · official $30.81 (match) · 185 history records