Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:56:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AD 0xad9c…7aa1 sports 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 300d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$298 (+5%) realized +$298 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate65%22W / 12L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$296
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +69.1% +53.0% 100% 67% +57.4%
≤30d 4 +26.8% +14.7% 75% 50% -41.7%
≤90d 10 +31.8% +19.3% 70% 60% +12.6%
all 34 +29.3% +17.0% 65% 59% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.0% 59% -4.8%
10% +5.8% 56% -13.9%
15% -4.4% 56% -22.2%
20% -13.8% 56% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$207 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$298
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses22 / 12
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage300d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-4.5) Iraq 81¢ 80¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $15 +$28 +180%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $15 +$1 +6%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $11 +$2 +21%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $71 −$71 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $40 +$31 +79%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 21 $94 −$94 -100%
Kings vs. Flames Apr 17 $128 +$170 +133%
Red Wings vs. Panthers Apr 16 $56 +$74 +133%
Avalanche vs. Flames Apr 15 $33 +$22 +67%
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers Mar 03 $179 −$179 -100%
Sabres vs. Panthers Mar 02 $94 +$94 +100%
Red Wings vs. Senators Feb 27 $40 +$51 +127%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jan 27 $63 −$63 -100%
Nuggets vs. Kings Jan 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Eagles vs. Packers Jan 26 $97 −$97 -100%
Islanders vs. Devils Nov 11 $6 +$8 +133%
Wild vs. Capitals Oct 20 $350 −$350 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Oct 17 $161 +$189 +117%
Senators vs. Sabres Oct 16 $84 +$94 +113%
Golden Knights vs. Flames Oct 15 $51 +$33 +64%
Angels vs. Brewers Sep 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Sep 16 $1,240 −$1,240 -100%
Tigers vs. Royals Aug 31 $412 +$446 +108%
Brewers vs. Blue Jays Aug 30 $101 +$118 +117%
Braves vs. Phillies Aug 30 $199 +$117 +59%
Pirates vs. Red Sox Aug 30 $220 +$238 +108%
Mariners vs. Guardians Aug 30 $270 +$388 +144%
Braves vs. Phillies Aug 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Yankees vs. White Sox Aug 29 $747 +$43 +6%
Tigers vs. Athletics Aug 28 $170 +$192 +113%
Pirates vs. Cardinals Aug 28 $170 +$266 +156%
Red Sox vs. Orioles Aug 27 $230 −$230 -100%
Pirates vs. Cardinals Aug 27 $160 +$180 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY Iraq 81¢ $46 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $15 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 47¢ $16 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $15 4d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $11 4d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $71 31d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ $40 31d
Wild vs. Stars BUY Stars 53¢ $40 65d
Warriors vs. Suns BUY Warriors 42¢ $94 66d
Kings vs. Flames BUY Flames 43¢ $128 66d
Red Wings vs. Panthers BUY Panthers 43¢ $56 68d
Avalanche vs. Flames BUY Avalanche 60¢ $33 69d
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 46¢ $179 112d
Sabres vs. Panthers BUY Sabres 50¢ $94 115d
Red Wings vs. Senators BUY Red Wings 44¢ $40 115d
Magic vs. Cavaliers BUY Magic 34¢ $63 146d
Nuggets vs. Kings BUY Kings 24¢ $16 222d
Eagles vs. Packers BUY Packers 50¢ $97 223d
Islanders vs. Devils BUY Islanders 43¢ $6 223d
Wild vs. Capitals BUY Wild 47¢ $350 248d
Blue Jays vs. Mariners BUY Blue Jays 46¢ $161 248d
Senators vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 47¢ $84 250d
Golden Knights vs. Flames BUY Golden Knights 61¢ $51 251d
Angels vs. Brewers BUY Angels 30¢ $57 278d
Tigers vs. Royals BUY Royals 48¢ $412 295d
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers BUY Dodgers 68¢ $1,240 295d
Mariners vs. Guardians BUY Guardians 41¢ $270 296d
Pirates vs. Red Sox BUY Pirates 48¢ $220 296d
Brewers vs. Blue Jays BUY Brewers 46¢ $101 296d
Braves vs. Phillies BUY Phillies 63¢ $199 296d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.72 · official $45.72 (match) · 75 history records