Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$237,623

7 days+$112,686

14 days+$219,148

30 days+$219,148

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Spurs (-20.5)	Spurs	52¢	0¢	$0	$0	−$0 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks	Spurs	46¢	0¢	$236,491	$0	−$236,491 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	38¢	0¢	$526	$0	−$526 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	34¢	0¢	$1,597	$0	−$1,597 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$240,320	−$236,491	-98%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5)	Jun 11	$854	−$606	-71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Jun 10	$549	−$526	-96%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$154,020	+$132,104	+86%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 06	$112,555	+$218,204	+194%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$66,175	+$109,177	+165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Jun 02	$474	−$474	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Jun 02	$1,671	−$1,597	-96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Jun 02	$2,806	−$644	-23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

sports 99% +$222,389

crypto 1% −$3,241

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	88¢	$232	29h
Spread: Spurs (-20.5)	SELL Spurs	15¢	$231	29h
Spread: Spurs (-20.5)	BUY Spurs	52¢	$854	29h
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	46¢	$240,083	31h
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	46¢	$4	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$549	41h
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$274,086	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$1	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$10	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$48	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$190	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$20	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$19	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$5	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$190	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$190	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$15	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$48	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$11	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$2,375	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$11	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$3	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$24	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$190	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$48	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$190	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$190	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$500	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$650	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	95¢	$1,000	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-17.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-4.1%	-13.2%	40%	40%	+10.8%
≤30d	9	-8.7%	-17.4%	33%	33%	+25.1%
≤90d	9	-8.7%	-17.4%	33%	33%	+25.1%
all	9	-8.7%	-17.4%	33%	33%	+25.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover14.2 tr/day

realistic slip~14%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-17.4%	33%	+25.1%
10% ← realistic here	-25.3%	33%	+13.1%
15%	-32.5%	33%	+2.2%
20%	-39.1%	33%	-7.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.