Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:37:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad9d…9dcf
sports · 861 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$53 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$88 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses441 / 406
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions13
Markets (closed)847 / 861
History coverage56d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 13 History 847 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$15
14 days−$12
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Bilibili Gaming 63¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 68¢ 80¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Bilibili Gaming 60¢ 100¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+67%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 8¢ 22¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+169%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 86¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 61¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 82¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 85¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$2 +88%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $8 $0 -2%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $5 −$1 -28%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$5 +173%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$3 -87%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +96%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$1 -60%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$4 -60%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +72%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -54%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 12 $5 +$8 +150%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$4 +88%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $3 +$3 +101%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $5 −$2 -43%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 $0 -14%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -47%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $2 $0 -6%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $5 −$2 -47%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $5 −$3 -77%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $5 −$4 -89%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$4 +85%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $4 +$2 +37%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $5 −$2 -37%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $3 −$1 -43%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$7 +156%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $4 $0 -4%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$2 +97%
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 48% −$65
sports 39% +$33
other 8% −$42
politics 2% −$7
tech 1% −$5
world 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 63¢ $4 23m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 63¢ $6 23m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 95¢ $2 26m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 93¢ $0 26m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 30¢ $2 28m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 28¢ $0 29m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 29¢ $0 29m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 23¢ $1 31m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 23¢ $1 31m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 60¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $2 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $6 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 75¢ $11 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $1 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 64¢ $1 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 68¢ $8 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 10¢ $1 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 25¢ $1 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Cloud9 39¢ $3 11h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 56¢ $1 11h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 58¢ $1 11h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 58¢ $1 11h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 58¢ $1 11h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud9 7¢ $1 12h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud9 7¢ $1 12h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud9 8¢ $1 12h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud9 8¢ $1 12h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud9 3¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -1.5% -10.9% 38% 31% -5.2%
≤30d 368 -5.2% -14.3% 38% 33% -11.4%
≤90d 847 -3.4% -12.6% 52% 27% -12.7%
all 847 -3.4% -12.6% 52% 27% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 27% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 25% -21.0%
15% -28.6% 23% -28.7%
20% -35.6% 21% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.05 · official $41.05 (match) · 2963 history records