Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:49:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xada6…9447 sports 175 markets active 0h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,207 (+7%) realized +$1,211 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%109W / 59L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$999now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$138
7 days+$168
14 days+$507
30 days+$1,267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$1,103
sports 42% +$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +22.2% +10.6% 82% 71% -3.6%
≤30d 46 +23.1% +11.4% 87% 63% +0.6%
≤90d 111 +11.3% +0.7% 68% 54% +0.2%
all 168 +6.7% -3.5% 65% 55% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 55% -2.7%
10% -12.7% 48% -12.0%
15% -21.1% 43% -20.5%
20% -28.9% 36% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$35 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$999
Realized+$1,211
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses109 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions7
Markets (closed)168 / 175
History coverage197d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq leading at halftime? No 96¢ 96¢ $714 $712 −$1 (-0%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Under 43¢ 41¢ $117 $110 −$7 (-6%)
Austria leading at halftime? No 87¢ 86¢ $83 $82 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Under 54¢ 57¢ $26 $28 +$1 (+6%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Under 43¢ 46¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+8%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Under 55¢ 57¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $153 +$65 +42%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 22 $113 +$13 +11%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $113 +$63 +56%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $1,225 +$53 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $66 −$66 -100%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $6 +$1 +16%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $33 +$20 +59%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 20 $62 +$16 +25%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 20 $151 +$8 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $233 −$233 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $76 +$78 +101%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $89 +$31 +35%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $58 +$43 +75%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $35 +$34 +96%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $46 +$40 +89%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $60 +$36 +61%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1,840 +$76 +4%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $115 +$31 +26%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $30 +$18 +61%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1,812 +$86 +5%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $908 +$38 +4%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $699 +$29 +4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $234 +$18 +8%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $53 +$15 +27%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $50 +$16 +33%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $429 +$32 +8%
Spread: Peru (-1.5) Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1,063 +$56 +5%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $13 +$7 +56%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $40 +$18 +45%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $95 +$16 +16%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $26 +$2 +8%
Qatar vs. El Salvador: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $2 +$2 +85%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $522 +$789 +151%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 04 $42 +$18 +43%
Andorra vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $43 +$9 +22%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $6 +$10 +170%
Will Philippines vs. Guam end in a draw? Jun 03 $400 +$21 +5%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $39 −$39 -100%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $14 +$8 +54%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw? May 24 $20 +$9 +45%
Will New York City FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $28 +$8 +28%
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $40 +$16 +41%
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $30 +$9 +32%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $35 +$16 +45%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $44 +$6 +14%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $14 +$12 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $23 29m
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 87¢ $83 40m
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $119 1h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $119 1h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $119 1h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $119 1h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $119 1h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $119 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $4 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $8 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $10 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $33 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $1 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $8 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $44 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $23 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $4 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $23 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $42 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $8 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $22 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $22 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $35 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $7 6h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY No 90¢ $113 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $35 6h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $22 9h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $86 9h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $86 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $998.63 · official $998.63 (match) · 702 history records