Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadaa…2a6f other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$114 (-1%) realized −$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$834per market
Trades / day87.5pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$1,346
sports 34% −$360
world 8% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-46.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -40.7% -46.4% 23% 8% -21.1%
≤30d 13 -40.7% -46.4% 23% 8% -21.1%
≤90d 13 -40.7% -46.4% 23% 8% -21.1%
all 13 -40.7% -46.4% 23% 8% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.4% 8% -21.1%
10% -51.5% 8% -28.7%
15% ← realistic here -56.2% 0% -35.5%
20% -60.5% 0% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$181 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$834
Trades / day87.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $363 −$182 -50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $703 −$308 -44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $369 −$141 -38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,167 −$221 -19%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $642 +$7 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,681 −$588 -35%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $326 −$57 -18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 22 $346 −$3 -1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $902 +$4 +0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 22 $2,537 −$76 -3%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $965 −$14 -1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $510 −$224 -44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $333 +$100 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 93¢ $6 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 93¢ $58 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 93¢ $52 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 93¢ $222 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $48 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $296 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $24 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $290 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 11¢ $3 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 11¢ $0 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 11¢ $1 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 12¢ $0 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 12¢ $2 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 12¢ $6 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 12¢ $6 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 12¢ $1 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 12¢ $16 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 12¢ $1 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 12¢ $3 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 12¢ $1 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 12¢ $0 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 338 history records