Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadab…0f33 crypto 504 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (567 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate74%383W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day567.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (567 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 517 +8.4% -2.0% 74% 15% -11.0%
≤30d 517 +8.4% -2.0% 74% 15% -11.0%
≤90d 517 +8.4% -2.0% 74% 15% -11.0%
all 517 +8.4% -2.0% 74% 15% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover567.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 15% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 11% -19.5%
15% -19.9% 10% -27.3%
20% -27.8% 10% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses383 / 134
Open positions0
Markets (closed)517 / 504
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day567.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 517 Trades
no open positions (142 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +669%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +669%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +669%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +669%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records