Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:18:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xadae…bc30 crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+7%) realized +$71 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%24W / 17L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$45
sports 42% +$22
other 14% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.6% +2.8% 75% 75% +4.4%
≤30d 4 +13.6% +2.8% 75% 75% +4.4%
≤90d 34 +8.0% -2.3% 62% 53% -1.6%
all 41 +2.0% -7.8% 59% 51% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 51% -3.1%
10% -16.6% 39% -12.4%
15% -24.6% 32% -20.8%
20% -32.0% 29% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses24 / 17
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 45
History coverage104d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 74¢ 80¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 74¢ 72¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O Jun 28 $28 −$26 -92%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $17 +$12 +67%
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $28 +$8 +28%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $50 +$25 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 17 $21 −$16 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 15 $21 +$20 +96%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on May 14 $49 +$31 +62%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 14 $50 −$35 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 14 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 14 $51 −$8 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 14 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 13 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 13 $9 −$5 -56%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 13 $35 +$7 +19%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5 May 13 $25 +$16 +62%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $23 +$45 +194%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $61 +$42 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 12 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 12 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 12 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 12 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 11 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 11 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 10 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 10 $1 +$3 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 17 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 17 $6 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 17 $5 +$4 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $50 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $50 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil to score first vs. Japan? BUY 54¢ $53 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O SELL 6¢ $2 20h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O BUY 68¢ $28 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $17 42h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 20¢ $15 46h
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 66¢ $13 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 74¢ $23 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL 94¢ $75 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $28 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY 62¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $5 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $41 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 45d
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? SELL No 23¢ $16 45d
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on BUY No 61¢ $43 45d
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on BUY No 61¢ $6 45d
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $1 45d
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $49 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $22 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $7 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.03 · official $153.97 · 112 history records