Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xadae…cd82
crypto · 11 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 1 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? No 10¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +133%
Will Marc Guéhi be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -63%
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +247%
Will John Stones be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$6 +197%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 56% −$13
other 25% +$9
sports 20% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +11.4% +0.8% 40% 30% -17.1%
≤30d 10 +11.4% +0.8% 40% 30% -17.1%
≤90d 10 +11.4% +0.8% 40% 30% -17.1%
all 10 +11.4% +0.8% 40% 30% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 30% -17.1%
10% -8.9% 30% -25.0%
15% -17.7% 30% -32.3%
20% -25.8% 30% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.40 · official $1.40 (match) · 21 history records