Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:11:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xadaf…2d29 crypto 1478 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 162d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,519 (-4%) realized −$3,519 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate71%1043W / 435L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$108
14 days+$108
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,073
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +5.9% -4.2% 59% 59% -5.4%
≤30d 123 +5.9% -4.2% 59% 59% -5.4%
≤90d 421 -0.5% -10.0% 76% 38% -11.2%
all 1478 -2.0% -11.3% 71% 47% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 47% -12.7%
10% -19.8% 35% -21.1%
15% -27.6% 24% -28.7%
20% -34.7% 15% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$58 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,519
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1043 / 435
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1478 / 1478
History coverage162d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1478 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$19 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$28 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$8 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$26 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$18 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$15 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$24 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$22 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$17 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$22 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$12 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$17 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$26 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $18 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $23 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $22 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $22 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $22 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records