Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xadb0…18ff
crypto · 89 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$14 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses42 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)83 / 89
History coverage25d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 6 History 83 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 28¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 28? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $1 +$1 +95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 28 $1 +$4 +341%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? May 27 $1 $0 -9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 27 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 25 $3 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 25 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 25 $3 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 25 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 25 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 25 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 25 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 25 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 20 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 19 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 19 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 91% −$17
other 6% +$6
sports 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 5h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 26¢ $1 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 6h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 28¢ $1 22h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 22h
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 13d
Will Nice win on 2026-05-29? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 15d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? SELL No 95¢ $1 15d
Will Nice win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 16d
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 16d
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 16d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? SELL No 90¢ $4 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 17d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? BUY No 20¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $4 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +32.6% +20.0% 50% 50% +34.4%
≤30d 83 -5.1% -14.1% 51% 46% -15.2%
≤90d 83 -5.1% -14.1% 51% 46% -15.2%
all 83 -5.1% -14.1% 51% 46% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 46% -15.2%
10% -22.3% 40% -23.3%
15% -29.8% 33% -30.8%
20% -36.7% 23% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.26 · official $9.26 (match) · 169 history records