Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadb5…4d50 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$55 (-10%) realized −$51 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate25%5W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$22
world 31% −$2
finance 10% −$15
culture 8% −$18
crypto 2% −$6
politics 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-50.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -45.2% -50.4% 25% 20% -39.1%
≤30d 20 -45.2% -50.4% 25% 20% -39.1%
≤90d 20 -45.2% -50.4% 25% 20% -39.1%
all 20 -45.2% -50.4% 25% 20% -39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.4% 20% -39.1%
10% -55.1% 10% -44.9%
15% -59.5% 5% -50.2%
20% -63.4% 0% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$313
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Open positions31
Markets (closed)20 / 51
History coverage7d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 73¢ 76¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+5%)
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? No 84¢ 91¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+21%)
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 50¢ 57¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 35¢ 88¢ $6 $16 +$9 (+152%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 80¢ 84¢ $13 $13 +$1 (+4%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 96¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? No 74¢ 68¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-8%)
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 67¢ 56¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-16%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 50¢ 84¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+68%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 86¢ 86¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 38¢ 41¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 24? No 23¢ 14¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-37%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 47¢ 98¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+107%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? No 90¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 gross profit margin 70%+? No 97¢ 86¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 64¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+16%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-43%)
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? No 60¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+66%)
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? No 58¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? No 58¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+66%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Yes 62¢ 8¢ $16 $2 −$14 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -52%
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this wee Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 23 $10 −$2 -18%
Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 22 $10 $0 +4%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $50 −$10 -20%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $9 −$5 -54%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 22 $10 −$7 -65%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -73%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 22 $15 +$6 +39%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $19 −$7 -39%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -72%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $16 −$5 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -85%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 84¢ $30 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY Yes 91¢ $12 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 1h
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 202 BUY No 89¢ $0 2h
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this wee BUY No 74¢ $9 3h
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this wee BUY No 74¢ $4 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 23¢ $0 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 23¢ $11 5h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 86¢ $9 13h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $2 16h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $2 16h
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 45¢ $8 26h
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 27h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 29h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 29h
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 30h
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? BUY No 90¢ $5 37h
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on BUY No 58¢ $1 37h
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this we BUY No 58¢ $1 37h
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? BUY No 60¢ $2 37h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $6 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $8 44h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $10 45h
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $8 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $2 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.12 · official $312.90 (match) · 141 history records