Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AD 0xadb5…6701 crypto 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 1210d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$308 (+32%) realized +$314 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%50W / 60L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$208
other 21% +$45
world 9% −$25
sports 7% +$5
politics 5% −$12
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -30.6% -37.2% 35% 30% -27.8%
≤30d 23 -30.6% -37.2% 35% 30% -27.8%
≤90d 23 -30.6% -37.2% 35% 30% -27.8%
all 110 +8.4% -2.0% 45% 35% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 35% +13.1%
10% -11.3% 30% +2.3%
15% -19.9% 27% -7.6%
20% -27.8% 23% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$7 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1210d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$314
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses50 / 60
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)110 / 121
History coverage1210d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 32¢ 10¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$26 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 23 $1 $0 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $15 +$26 +170%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 15 $5 +$1 +30%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Feb 15 $3 +$7 +223%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Feb 15 $5 +$7 +139%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Oct 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by August 31? Aug 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $2k or $3k first? Aug 13 $81 +$52 +64%
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Ripple above $3.20 on January 24? Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24? Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $4,250 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 18 $10 −$10 -100%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? Jan 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Jan 18 $25 +$64 +257%
Will Amazon purchase Bitcoin before July? Jan 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Jan 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jan 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Jan 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Jan 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jan 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before October? Oct 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 2h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 43¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.01 · official $45.01 (match) · 473 history records