trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? | Jun 11 | $7 | +$33 | +471% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | Jun 11 | $1,140 | +$1,072 | +94% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | Jun 11 | $996 | +$5,893 | +592% |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | Jun 11 | $357 | −$258 | -72% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +271.3% | +235.9% | 75% | 75% | +234.5% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +271.3% | +235.9% | 75% | 75% | +234.5% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +271.3% | +235.9% | 75% | 75% | +234.5% |
| all | 4 | +271.3% | +235.9% | 75% | 75% | +234.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +235.9% | 75% | +234.5% |
| 10% | +203.8% | 75% | +202.5% |
| 15% | +174.4% | 75% | +173.2% |
| 20% | +147.5% | 75% | +146.5% |