Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xadb6…20d2 other 110 markets active 15h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%17W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$15
politics 10% −$3
sports 6% +$58
economics 6% −$1
world 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +33.4% +20.7% 25% 25% +0.8%
≤30d 16 +8.3% -2.0% 19% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 107 +4.8% -5.1% 16% 11% -9.4%
all 108 +4.8% -5.2% 16% 11% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 11% -9.4%
10% -14.3% 11% -18.0%
15% -22.5% 9% -26.0%
20% -30.1% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×9.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses17 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage90d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $136 $136 −$0 (-0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $9 +$11 +134%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $28 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $76 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $86 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $237 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 17 $207 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $188 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $207 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $205 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $385 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,295 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 05 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $191 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $349 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $418 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $410 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? May 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $339 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $194 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $348 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 27 $201 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $401 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $335 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $207 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $369 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $198 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $195 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 14h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 20h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 22h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 47h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $9 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $136 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 11d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 16d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 16d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 16d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 17d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 18d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 20d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 21d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 21d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 21d
Will Solana reach $110 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 23d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 27d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.46 · official $190.46 (match) · 327 history records