Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadb7…cc63 world 80 markets active 3h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate43%33W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% $0
other 18% −$1
politics 14% −$3
sports 12% −$6
economics 6% $0
finance 3% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -13.4% -21.6% 43% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 25 +74.6% +58.0% 60% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 71 +24.9% +13.0% 42% 1% -9.7%
all 77 +19.9% +8.5% 43% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.5% 4% -10.0%
10% -1.9% 3% -18.6%
15% -11.4% 1% -26.4%
20% -20.1% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses33 / 44
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)77 / 80
History coverage521d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 74¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $113 −$4 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $35 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $137 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $96 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $58 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $78 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $83 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $34 +$2 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $13 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $13 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $58 −$26 -45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $61 −$6 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $1 +$32 +2671%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 21 $34 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $11 +$1 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? May 11 $1 $0 -9%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 10 $37 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 09 $36 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $73 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $5 +$1 +10%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $66 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $73 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $70 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $15 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $15 10h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 25h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 25h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 45h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $39 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $39 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $30 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $34 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $10 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $36 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $18 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $31 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $22 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $37 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $38 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.20 · official $0.00 · 351 history records