Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:07:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadbc…d00f politics 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 895d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,507 (-10%) realized −$1,507 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%84W / 111L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$182
7 days−$182
14 days−$182
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$589
crypto 21% −$988
politics 11% +$90
sports 4% +$70
world 1% −$23
tech 0% $0
economics 0% −$41
weather 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -27.5% -34.4% 60% 40% -24.2%
≤30d 5 -27.5% -34.4% 60% 40% -24.2%
≤90d 6 -39.5% -45.3% 50% 33% -24.8%
all 195 -14.2% -22.4% 43% 33% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 33% -18.5%
10% -29.8% 23% -26.3%
15% -36.6% 18% -33.4%
20% -42.8% 13% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$30 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

895d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$1,507
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses84 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)195 / 197
History coverage895d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 72¢ 72¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 32¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $93 −$33 -36%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $239 −$238 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $299 +$31 +10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $294 +$6 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $243 +$52 +21%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will $HAWK FDV be $20,000,000-$30,000,000 one day after launch? Dec 05 $627 −$23 -4%
Will $HAWK FDV be $30,000,000 or more one day after launch? Dec 05 $819 +$17 +2%
Will $HAWK FDV be $10,000,000-$20,000,000 one day after launch? Dec 05 $251 −$24 -9%
Will $HAWK FDV be below $10,000,000 one day after launch? Dec 05 $115 −$86 -75%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Nov 15 $20 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "sanctuary city" during Pennsylvania rally on October 2 Nov 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "tax" 25 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on Oct Nov 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "frack" or "fracking" 5 or more times during Pennsylvan Nov 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "missile defense shield" during Pennsylvania rally on O Nov 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Pennsylvania rally on October 26? Nov 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Trump say "trans" during Pennsylvania rally on October 26? Nov 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "Tren de Aragua" during Pennsylvania rally on October 2 Nov 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on O Oct 29 $10 +$11 +113%
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross more than $70m opening weekend? Oct 26 $81 −$72 -90%
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $61-70m opening weekend? Oct 26 $69 −$29 -42%
Will Powell wear a purple tie at FOMC? Sep 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first? Sep 18 $37 −$3 -8%
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend? Sep 16 $93 −$56 -60%
Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate? Sep 11 $142 −$52 -37%
Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during Hannity town ha Sep 05 $20 −$18 -91%
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? Sep 03 $412 −$251 -61%
Will Tim Walz say "Teacher" during CNN interview? Sep 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "fake news" during Pennsylvania rally? Aug 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "border czar" during Pennsylvania rally? Aug 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania rally? Aug 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "MAGA" 3+ times during Pennsylvania rally? Aug 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "tampon" during Pennsylvania rally? Aug 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during Pennsylv Aug 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "border" 10 or more times during Pennsylvania ra Aug 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "border" 25 or more times during Pennsylvania ra Aug 31 $7 +$3 +41%
Will Kamala Harris say "Ceasefire" during CNN interview? Aug 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" during CNN intervi Aug 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday? Aug 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "Prosecutor" during CNN interview? Aug 30 $0 $0 +170%
Will Tim Walz say "Abortion" during CNN interview? Aug 30 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Kamala Harris say "Oakland" during CNN interview? Aug 30 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Kamala Harris say "Tips" during CNN interview? Aug 30 $7 +$3 +45%
Will Tim Walz say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during CNN interview? Aug 30 $10 $0 +4%
Will Kamala Harris say "San Francisco" during CNN interview? Aug 30 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Kamala Harris say "J.D." or "Vance" during CNN interview? Aug 30 $11 +$4 +37%
Will Kamala Harris say "weird "or "weirdo" during CNN interview? Aug 30 $13 +$2 +19%
Will Kamala Harris say "Wall" during CNN interview? Aug 30 $12 +$3 +20%
Will Kamala Harris say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during CNN i Aug 30 $13 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $2 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 72¢ $58 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 60¢ $59 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 82¢ $239 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $47 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 46¢ $46 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $97 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $3 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $29 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $45 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $67 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $43 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $15 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $294 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $243 2d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.54 · official $59.54 (match) · 1051 history records