Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadbc…c0ff sports 29 markets active 6d ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$175 (+20%) realized +$175 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day63.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$238
other 26% −$14
finance 15% −$52
crypto 1% −$11
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +29.5% +17.1% 50% 50% -31.8%
≤30d 29 -6.3% -15.2% 41% 38% +7.3%
≤90d 29 -6.3% -15.2% 41% 38% +7.3%
all 29 -6.3% -15.2% 41% 38% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 38% +7.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 34% -3.0%
15% -30.8% 34% -12.4%
20% -37.6% 34% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$17 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage6d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day63.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $83 −$65 -78%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $128 −$104 -82%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$11 +132%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $61 +$89 +146%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $41 +$3 +8%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $26 +$3 +11%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $37 +$31 +83%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $87 +$64 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $49 +$52 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $54 +$48 +89%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $83 +$72 +86%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $0 $0 -53%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1 $0 -11%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2 $0 -14%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1 $0 -37%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1 $0 -53%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $4 −$1 -16%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $15 +$16 +109%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $26 +$23 +90%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $35 −$35 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $35 +$45 +129%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 59¢ $3 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 58¢ $3 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 56¢ $3 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 45¢ $2 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 50¢ $2 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 54¢ $2 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 54¢ $2 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 50¢ $2 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 52¢ $2 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 50¢ $2 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 50¢ $2 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 50¢ $2 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 48¢ $2 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 47¢ $2 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 47¢ $2 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 47¢ $2 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 46¢ $2 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 46¢ $2 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 45¢ $2 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 45¢ $2 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 45¢ $2 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 59¢ $3 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 59¢ $3 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 58¢ $3 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 58¢ $3 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 46¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 397 history records